Can Sonic 3 Take Down Disney’s Lion King Prequel At The Box Office?

It seems like box office showdowns have become all the rage in the wake of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, with “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” both becoming gigantic hits. Earlier this year, we saw “The Garfield Movie” and “Furiosa” face off but the whole Garfuiosa thing didn’t really catch on, to put it mildly. More recently, “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” gave us the double bill that was Glicked, which was another big success. To finish out the year, we’ve got Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” duking it out with Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.” While I don’t have a cute nickname for this showdown (Mufasic?), the theaters are going to be the winners here.

Currently, it looks like “Sonic 3” has the edge over “Mufasa.” As of this writing, the third live-action “Sonic” film from director Jeff Fowler is looking at a debut of at least $55 million, while the prequel to 2019’s “Lion King” from director Barry Jenkins is looking at around $50 million on opening weekend, per early tracking (via Deadline). That said, in both cases, those early projections might be on the low side.

The folks at Box Office Theory currently have “Sonic 3” doing between $62 and $71 million. That would put it right in line with 2022’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 2,” which pulled in $72 million in its debut, a record for a video game movie. For what it’s worth, the film finished its global run with $405 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. That was a significant increase over the first film, which did a little over $300 million in 2020.

The outlet also has “Mufasa” doing between $55 and $65 million domestically. Granted, that’s a significant decrease from the ridiculous $191.7 million opening posted by 2019’s “Lion King,” which ultimately went on to make a staggering $1.66 billion worldwide becoming one of the biggest movies of all time. But that was then, this is now. The theatrical landscape has changed. Even so, an opening in that range is nothing to sneeze at. With a weak January slate, both movies are well-positioned to rake it in for weeks to come as well.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” centers on Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails who must unite against a powerful new enemy, Shadow. Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely ally in the hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting the planet. Keanu Reeves (“John Wick”) joins the cast as the voice of Shadow, with the rest of the core cast from the first two films returning, including Jim Carrey as Dr. Robotnik. On this film’s side will be audience reception, as the early wave of reactions to “Sonic 3” have promised another crowd-pleaser.

Meanwhile, “Mufasa: The Lion King” focuses on Rafiki who is telling the legend of Mufasa to Kiara, the daughter of Simba and Nala. Told in flashbacks, the story introduces Mufasa as an orphaned cub who meets a sympathetic lion named Taka, the heir to a royal bloodline. Jenkins previously made the Best Picture winner “Moonlight,” and his presence behind the camera seems to be its greatest asset. For as much money as the first film made, it wasn’t regarded highly by critics.

So far as “Sonic” goes, it seems like money in the bag for Paramount. They’ve kept the budgets reasonable, and the audience is there. Even if this one plays right in line with expectations again, it should sail to $400 million worldwide. If January is super slow and audiences love Shadow, there’s no telling how big this could be.

As for “Mufasa,” there’s something to be said for the fact that the original “The Lion King” was one of Disney’s biggest hits of the ’90s that remains a fan favorite to this day. If Jenkins delivers the goods, even if the opening weekend is relatively soft, it could easily leg out. Let’s not forget that Jon Favreau’s 2019 movie made more than $1.1 billion of its money overseas. Even if the prequel makes a third of what the last one did, we’re looking at a $550 million global hit. Either way, this is money theaters will be happy to have over the holiday season and into the choppy waters of January.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” hit theaters on December 20, 2024.